Newcastle United vs Benfica Clash: Odds, Lineups & What’s at Stake

When Newcastle United Football Club locks horns with Sport Lisboa e Benfica at St James' Park on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, the atmosphere will be electric and the betting markets will be buzzing.

The Champions League showdown kicks off at 15:00 UTC (12:00 BST, 8:00 ET) under the watchful eye of Polish referee Szymon Marciniak. Both clubs are desperate for three points to keep their Round of 16 hopes alive, and the lineups reveal a blend of experience and hungry youngsters.

Why This Fixture Matters

Newcastle’s recent 2‑1 loss at Brighton on October 18 left manager Eddie Howe searching for answers. The Magpies recorded only three shots on target despite holding 54 % of possession, and a lone goal from forward Nick Woltemade wasn’t enough.

Meanwhile, Benfica, under Bruno Lage, emerged from a goalless draw against arch‑rivals FC Porto on October 19. That stalemate offered just 49 % possession and left the Portuguese side without the cushion they need in Group B.

Starting XI: Who’s In, Who’s Out

Newcastle will line up in a 4‑3‑3. Goalkeeper Nick Pope keeps his spot between the sticks. The back four features captain Kieran Trippier at right‑back, a young centre‑back pair of Malick Thiaw and Sven Botman, and left‑back Daniel Burn.

The midfield trio – Bruno Guimarães, Lewis Miley and Jacob Ramsey – combines steel‑ball defending with inventive passing.

Up front, wingers Jacob Murphy and Anthony Gordon flank striker Nick Woltemade, who hopes to top‑score again.

Benfica’s 4‑4‑1‑1 also packs a punch. Ukrainian shot‑stopper Anatoliy Trubin starts, while the back line pairs veteran Argentine centre‑back Nicolás Otamendi with Portuguese youngster Antonio Silva.

The midfield sees Colombian engine Richard Rios slotting alongside Argentine Enzo Barrenechea and Norwegian left‑midfielder Fredrik Aursnes. The creative spark comes from Greek forward Vangelis Pavlidis, supported by Belgian winger Dodi Lukebakio.

Betting Markets & Predictions

Sports Gambler’s odds list Newcastle as a -172 favorite – a clear sign that bookmakers value the home advantage and recent form. The site calls the price "excellent value" and predicts a full‑time win for the Magpies.

StatMuse takes a bolder stance, projecting a 3‑0 victory for Newcastle and oddly crediting Woltemade with four goals – a statistical quirk that’s sparked conversation on fan forums.

Analysts point to a few key factors: Newcastle’s higher pressing intensity, the impact of Trippier’s set‑piece expertise, and Benfica’s reliance on Otamendi’s defensive leadership after a lackluster draw with Porto.

What the Coaches Are Saying

In a pre‑match press conference, Howe emphasized the need to "bounce back" and highlighted Woltemade’s growth: "He’s become a real threat in the box, and I trust him to finish chances when they come."

Lage, meanwhile, focused on discipline: "We didn’t create chances against Porto, but we stayed compact. Tonight we need to be sharper in transition and use Pavlidis’s movement to stretch the defence."

Potential Game‑Changers

• Set‑piece prowess: Trippier’s deliveries have resulted in three of Newcastle’s five goals this season.
• Benfica’s counter‑attack speed, especially Lukebakio’s runs from the right flank.
• The VAR crew – Polish VAR manager Tomasz Kwiatkowski – could become decisive in a match likely to see tight officiating.

Broad Implications for the Group

Group B currently stands with Newcastle on 3 points, Benfica on 1, and the other two clubs – Paris Saint‑Germain and Dynamo Kyiv – each sitting on 4. A win for Newcastle would lift them to the top, while Benfica would need a miracle in the final two fixtures to stay afloat.

From a financial perspective, progressing to the knockout stage adds roughly €15 million in UEFA distribution, crucial for both clubs' summer transfer budgets.

What Comes Next?

Should Newcastle win, the next league game sees them travel to Manchester United on October 28, a test that could further solidify their league standing.

Conversely, a Benfica loss forces them into a must‑win against FC Basel next week, where a defensive lapse could be fatal.

Historical Context: Newcastle vs Benfica

The two sides have met only twice in European competition. In 2015, Newcastle edged a 2‑1 home win, while Benfica captured a 3‑2 victory in Lisbon six years later. Both matches were tightly contested, reinforcing the notion that this fixture could swing either way.